You might guess it's the Communist Party, which controls all the key government offices. But the Party is weakening, split between the liberals and the hard-line conservatives. Some experts think the Party will disappear in eight years.

You might guess it's President Hu (pronounced Hoo) or Premier Wen, who command all the attention in the press and are running around the world signing economic deals with raw materials suppliers. (By comparison, Bush and Cheney seem to be living in a rest home. Bush visited key ally Egypt only once in four years. Cheney seems secluded in his office, mumbling, "I wouldn't change a thing.")

But Hu and Wen may not have their hands on the throttles, either.

Recent events, like the Chinese diplomatic surprise when Hong Kong refused to allow a well-planned shore visit by the U.S. Navy, make us wonder who's in charge in Beijing.

So if it isn't Wen and Hu, who? (Try saying this out loud.)

Maybe it's the Chinese military which is now in charge of The People's Republic of China (PRC).

Consider events of the last two years:

A PRC General blurted, "We now have the rocket which can reach the United States!" It was not the kind of message President Hu and Premier Wen want to send to their largest customer. Yet they couldn't stop the message and didn't dare admonish the offender.

The PRC shot down one of its own weather satellites, signaling the U.S. that it can destroy or disrupt our military's satellite-driven command and control processes. (Read as: "Just try and fight us if we go to war over Taiwan.")

After American Pacific Fleet Admiral Keating offered friendship to China's navy, a PRC admiral ordered one of his super silent subs to sneak into an American carrier group and surface immediately behind our aircraft carrier – a clear signal that China's military now had the capability to sink or disable our mightiest surface craft. (It was kind of like a schoolyard bully sneaking up behind a studious kid and yelling, "Boo!")

A second meeting between Admiral Keating and China's navy resulted in more rudeness. When Keating inquired about the rapid buildup in China's military spending, his host said, "If you are afraid of our military, you must have no courage." Not the kind of lessons taught in Diplomacy 101.

When Hong Kong refused to honor the agreement to a U.S. naval visit, Chinese diplomats back-watered rapidly, claiming, "It was a mistake." Immediately came an angry message from Beijing, "It was not a mistake."

Who made that aggressive claim? Hu? Wen? They were silent.

You can bet that a blunt message like that could come from only one source – China's military.

It seems like a day doesn't go by without China announcing a new military achievement. A new rocket. A new jet fighter. A new jet engine. A new submarine. A new satellite technology. The military buildup is immense, with public spending figures understated by at least half.

This is a frightening development for the world.

As China's military rises in power, there are dangerous consequences.

The Asian continent can be destabilized as China threatens its neighbors.

The U.S. could be drawn into conflict as its policy of "containment" collides head on with China's policy of expansion.

A nuclear arms race could be set off if Japan, Taiwan and South Korea join the nuclear club.

China's movement toward economic and political democracy could be upended by the increasingly powerful military. Already, President Hu leans on the military for political support against his political foes in the Party.

There is good news, however.

China's military, unlike Japan's in the twentieth century, does not believe in surprise attacks. History shows that China's military has a long history of sending warning signals first.

Contrary to our Korean War histories, which were unduly influenced by General Douglas MacArthur's writings, the entry of Mao's armies into the Korean War was not a massive surprise attack. That was just "Dugout Doug" covering his legacy.

A Korean War timeline shows a different picture. Mao decided to send the Americans a signal that they were not to capture Pyongyang and reach the Yalu River. He sent two Chinese Divisions into the mountains to wait. When the Americans and South Korean forces kept advancing, he ordered his two Divisions to come down from the mountains and deliver a bloody nose to select American and South Korean units.

A few U.S. and South Korean units were badly mauled, but Mao's divisions retreated back into the mountains. The signal was given. But MacArthur ignored it, never informing President Truman. Only when American units reached the Yalu River (China's border) did the great wave of Chinese come swarming into the Korean war.

That's the good news. The Chinese military sends warning signals.

Hopefully we will know how to read them.

(click here for a printable version of this article)