WILL NEW ORLEANS SUFFER THE "JIMMY DOYLE EFFECT"?

Can New Orleans come back from the flooding of Hurricane Katrina? Some think yes. Some think no. But based upon history, New Orleans will suffer the "Jimmy Doyle Effect."

Jimmy Doyle was a very good professional boxer from Los Angeles during the late 1930s and early 1940s. A mere five foot seven, he was an outstanding lightweight, skillful, fast and full of heart. But in 1946 his manager arranged a bout with a huge, powerful middleweight named Artie Levine. It was a huge mistake. Although Doyle fought well, the bigger man eventually landed the big haymaker, and Doyle was knocked out.

Suffering a severe concussion, Doyle recuperated slowly and never seemed to regain the old snap. Again, a cruel manager set up a bout with Sugar Ray Robinson, believed to be the greatest fighter of all time on a "pound for pound" basis. Although Doyle fought courageously, his Levine-slowed reflexes were no match for the relentless attack of Sugar Ray. Doyle died in the ring in front of thousands of howling Cleveland boxing fans on June 25, 1947.

The "Jimmy Doyle Effect" describes a condition in which a person or place is so badly damaged that only partial recovery is possible. And according to history, that is precisely what will happen to New Orleans.

In 1906, Galveston was Texas's most prominent port, growing rich on the cotton trade. Then the deadly hurricane hit, wiping the city out. Although Galveston was rebuilt, it suffered the "Jimmy Doyle Effect" and never came back. Survivors moved 45 miles up the Buffalo Bayou to a place called Houston, which superceded Galveston as a port city.

New Orleans refugees seem to want to get jobs and settle in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio or other cities which have offered them safe harbor. Businessmen are eyeing permanent relocation to Baton Rouge, seventy miles away. In fact, Baton Rouge will probably do to New Orleans what Houston did to Galveston.

Before the Johnstown flood of 1889, the city was noted for its steelmaking prosperity. Since that time of disaster, it has been hit with the "Jimmy Doyle Effect" and is now known primarily as the site of the "Johnstown Flood."

Sometimes a city is flooded, not with water, but with rust. Rust never happens all at once, like a flood. Instead it insidiously eats away at a city, forcing it to lose its greatness. Cleveland, Ohio is a city which has been hit by the "Jimmy Doyle Effect," seeing its population shrink from 1.2 million in 1950 to a mere 465,000 in 2005. In 1950, Cleveland was the nation's sixth largest city. Today it is down around 26th or 27th.

During those 55 years, Cleveland went from being the nation's richest city in per capita income to one of the lowest. The great steel, automobile and machinery producing plants of the Cleveland Flats have disappeared in a huge flood of dust, along with all the high-wage jobs they offered. In 1950, the price of a house in Cleveland was equal to the cost of three similar houses in Connecticut, four similar houses in Los Angeles and six such houses in Houston. Now, Cleveland has some of the cheapest housing around.

People visiting city have a tendency to say, "Cleveland has really come back." But what they're seeing is the fluff of new stadiums, a rebuilt Superior Avenue, a spiffed-up Ninth Street, and the incredible growth of Case Western Reserve, Cleveland State University and Cleveland Clinic. What they don't seem to see are all the abandoned buildings on Euclid Avenue which once housed beautiful department stores like Higbees, Halle's and the May Company. (In fact, there are no longer any department stores left in Cleveland.) What the casual visitor does not see is a low-wage, shrinking population that can no longer support its service base. Schools are being closed down right and left, the police department is underfunded and the once world-famed Cleveland Symphony Orchestra is in dire financial straits. Worse yet, the West side is fighting the East side over a rapidly shrinking pool of funds.

On a recent trip to Cleveland, I asked a cab driver what had happened to Cleveland. His interpretation of the "Jimmy Doyle Effect" was, "All the rich people have moved away."

Like Cleveland, New Orleans may come back. But never to its former prominence as a great city.