Posted 8/31/2009

HEALTHCARE PLANNING COLLIDES WITH WISDOM

The reason there is so much conflict over healthcare is that Washington is made up of people with high levels of intelligence and correspondingly low levels of wisdom.

History has long demonstrated that there is an inverse relationship between cognitive intelligence and wisdom.

The best definition of "wisdom" came from Confucius, who said, "Wisdom is knowing people."

The lack of wisdom in Congress was brutally shown when the attempt to sell Obama's healthcare plan in town meetings backfired so dramatically. Instead buying, "Yes we can," the people shouted, "Hell, no!"

(This wisdom shortage was similar to the high intelligence band of Bush, Cheney & Rumsfeld, who invaded Iraq without having the wisdom to realize that Arab states – like every other country -- hate to be invaded by foreign armies. Instead of Cheney's promise of flowers strewn in the path of our army, the Iraqis responded with a brutal "Hell, no!" and a nasty insurgency. Bush, Cheney & Company never seemed to understand that Iraq's Sunni people actually liked Saddam Hussein.)

Back to healthcare's lack of wisdom.

For years, the press has been warning people about the catastrophic rise in healthcare costs and the possibility of bankrupting the country. For years, the people have been prepared to look at healthcare change in terms of lessening costs and saving the budget.

Instead of emphasizing cost control change, the Obama plan went all out to increase healthcare coverage. They brayed about 46 million uninsured people.

When the average voter of average intelligence – but with a high wisdom quotient – heard this, the hackles went up. Insuring 46 million extra people would not control costs, but surely drive costs up. With most people fearful of the trillions being committed to bail out the economy, Obama's healthcare plan was pouring salt onto open wounds.

Confronted by a popular uprising, Obama claimed that his plan would save money in the long run.

But nobody believed this claim. It did not pass the wisdom smell test.

Wisdom insists that insuring more people will cost more – not less. As the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office quickly acknowledged.

Wisdom has an important law:

If the government pays for a service, the people will come.

And come in unexpected droves and droves.

This is why Washington has always drastically underestimated the costs of its programs. The projected costs of Medicare fell far short as the people came to it. And as the specialists came. Almost half the rise in Medicare costs came from "new" diseases, new medical advances and new devices which were never anticipated by Washington. The psychiatrists jumped on the bandwagon, continually coming up with a huge number of mental diseases, expensively treated by drugs and counseling. And of course the fraud merchants demanded and got their share of the pie.

Medicaid and the prescription drug plan suffered the same fate, drastic underestimating usage through lack of Washington wisdom.

It isn't just healthcare, of course. Estimates for new military developments always fall drastically short of end costs. The fancy $140 million F-22 fighter was originally pitched at $70 million. The new Coast Guard cutter ran so far over budget and under performance that it had to be abandoned. A few decades ago, a new carrier-based fighter plane was loaded up with so many supplier-inspired gadgets that it became too heavy for aircraft carrier elevators and had to be disbanded. The only major military development that came out on budget(free of Congressional add-ons) was the F-16 fighter that every allied nation uses today.

If you are undecided about Obama's healthcare plan, put your wisdom to work with the following questions.

• Can the USA afford a $9 trillion dollar expenditure over the next ten years, in view of our huge budget deficit – projected to be $1.6 trillion this year alone?
• Can we insure 300 hundred million people for less than the cost of insuring 256 million people?
• Can we stop the relentless advance of medical science, which boosts both coverages and costs?
• Can we cut the payments to doctors and hospitals without creating shortages, which are already cropping up for primary care physicians, general surgeons, gynecologists and nurses?
• Does it make any sense to cap the payments to doctors and not restrict payments to the trial lawyers who sue them, driving up malpractice insurance costs?
• How many doctors will be willing to keep practicing with medical malpractice costs of $200,000 a year? Would you want to swallow that kind of nut before breaking even?
• If Washington has never been able to estimate new program costs accurately in the past, why are you willing to believe their figures this time?
• Why does the Obama plan not address the emergency room problem – where hospitals lose money, people wait an average of one hour before receiving care, and where stroke victims deteriorate rapidly?
• With the number of doctors decreasing and the number of patients increasing, do you think your waiting time will increase or decrease?
• When the Obama healthcare plan takes effect, do you think the speed, accuracy and quality of your healthcare will be better or worse?

When you have thought all this through, why not send a telegram or email to your Congressperson?

He may be off on a high-cost junket to Cancun, but someone on his staff might read it to him.

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