Posted 3/7/2011

PRESSURE ON THE COMMUNIST PARTY

While the Communist Party appears to be in firm control of China, several forces are at work, pulling the organization apart.

For 15 years the Party has been splitting into two camps – the liberals vs. the conservatives.

The liberals favor the growth of religions in China because they reduce rural unrest by providing essential health and wellness services. The Conservatives insist there is no place for religion in atheistic Communism.

The liberals advocate increasing freedoms for everyone. The conservatives lurch toward centralized power.

Some experts believe the Party will split into two parties within five years.

Technology is a force tearing at the controlling levers of the Party. Despite Beijing's attempts to censor the internet, clever young people push embarrassing facts around the country in a matter of minutes. Everybody with a cell phone gets up-to-the-minute updates on the revolutions taking place in the Middle East despite the Party's best attempts at blocking the free flow of information.

The Party-controlled press seems anything but. First-rate editors and reporters at China Daily and the Xinhua news network strive for excellence in covering all the news – even much of what the Party disapproves of. The editors seem to think they are in existence to serve the people, even though the Party thinks the people exist only to serve the Party.

When earthquakes caused schools to collapse due to shoddy construction practices, China Daily front-paged the story with huge color photos. In one case, the paper went way over the line by showing a picture of a local Party official on his knees in the mud begging for forgiveness from a furious circle of parents. Beijing was horrified to see a picture symbolically showing ordinary people threatening the Party. The picture ran for nine hours before the Party ordered it pulled. But in those nine hours, the picture sped around the world of cell phones and computers.

Economic prosperity is diminishing the power of the Party among the rapidly growing middle class. The "From each according to his ability; to each according to his need" mantra is not of much interest to the 300 million Chinese who are enjoying middle-class luxuries. Taiwan and South Korea are close-to-home daily reminders of what happens to dictatorial parties when the middle class becomes sufficiently large to reach that critical mass which demands irresistible political change.

The growth of Protestantism in China has become very troubling for the Party on several counts. First, the Party did not realize how fast the religion was growing, since it is a secret "house religion" – duplicating the way Christianity grew in the Roman Empire. Second, estimates suggest that there are now over 140 million Protestants in China – twice the number of Communist Party members. Third, a large number of Protestants are members of the Communist Party. In fact, they are the young up-and-comers who will be the backbone of the Party in the near future. Four, President Hu did not learn of the surge in Protestants until three months ago – making him worry about what other bad news has not been reported up the chain of command.

The heavy weight of corruption is turning ordinary people against the Party. Even Premier Wen was forced to admit that "corruption was concentrated in the government and in the Party." Land grabs on the part of Party men and developers is causing thousands of uprisings in rural areas near major cities.

Water pollution, according to polls, has almost eighty percent of the people "concerned." With 78 percent of all rivers polluted, and groundwater in desperate shape, people are dying in large numbers of throat, stomach and intestinal cancers. China's cities have no sewage control facilities – and no plans to build any. The Party's refusal to devote funds to environmental projects is triggering outbursts.

In the past five years, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has become a major threat to the Party. Although the "Defense Commission" reports to President Hu, it seems to be liberating itself from civilian control. It started with meetings between Chinese and American admirals where the remarks made by the Chinese admirals were far from peaceful and respectful. In one meeting, the American admiral was told he should take a deal where "China and the USA divide the Pacific Ocean in half." In other words, the USA should stay out of the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Pacific, as far out as Guam.

Next, the PLA began to sending ships out to impede the American Sixth Fleet in the Straits of Taiwan. The fleet has to stop to avoid collisions. In one case, a PLA silent submarine penetrated the fleet's defensive shield and surfaced behind the fleet aircraft carrier. This act sent a message that China's military was capable of disabling or sinking U.S. carriers. China's civilian government was not consulted prior to these military actions.

The Party agreed to allow the Sixth Fleet to have shore leave in Hong Kong. Plans were made and military spouses were flown to Hong Kong. Everybody looked forward to a joyful reunion. Then, just eight days before the event, permission to land in Hong Kong was denied. The fleet decided to go elsewhere. China's foreign office sent a message to the USA: "It was a mistake." Three days later, the PLA sent its own message: "It was not a mistake."

When U.S. Defense Secretary Gates met with his counterparts in China, the PLA test-started its new stealth fighters. Pictures were sent to all the media. The next day Mr. Gates met with President Hu. When President Hu was asked about the test flight, he seemed startled. He didn't seem to know about it. The PLA felt free to drop a bombshell on a diplomatic meeting between the world's two superpowers – without fir st clearing it with the civilian government.

PLA ships are beginning to muscle other nations as well. It seems to be telling everyone from Japan to the Philippines that the East China Sea and the South China Sea belong to the Peoples Republic of China. Everyone else is a trespasser.

The PLA has just muscled through a 13 percent increase in its budget. No one in the People's Congress seemed willing to oppose it.

These are mighty forces tearing at the fabric of China's Communist Party.

How long can it survive while losing so much control?

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